GDP results from the National Bureau of Statistics has revealed that severe incidences of flooding in 2022 slowed Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product growth to 3.10 per cent in 2022 from 3.40 per cent in 2021.
The report said reduced growth in the agriculture and industrial sector of the economy slowed GDP growth in 2022, despite the good performance of the service sector. This translated to slower economic growth in 2022.
The NBS said, “Overall, the annual GDP growth rate in 2022 stood at 3.10 per cent, from the 3.40 per cent reported in 2021. Thus, the performance of agriculture and Industry reduced in 2022 relative to 2021, while the performance of the Services sector improved in 2022.”
It added, “Although the Agriculture sector grew by 2.05 per cent in the reference period, its performance was significantly hampered by severe incidences of flood experienced across the country, accounting for lesser growth relative to the fourth quarter of 2021 which was 3.58 per cent.”
The NBS stated that the overall growth rate of the agriculture sector fell from 2.13 per cent in 2021 to 1.88 per cent in 2022. The overall performance of the agriculture and industry sector fell in 2022 compared to 2021, while the performance of the service sector improved in 2022.
Agriculture contributed 24.05 per cent to total real GDP in 2022.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, GDP grew by 3.52 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms. This growth was driven by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.69 per cent and contributed 56.27 per cent to aggregate GDP.
In its Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report Q4 2022, the NBS said, “Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.52 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2022, following a growth of 2.25 per cent in the third quarter of 2022 and 3.98 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021.
“The performance of the GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022 was driven mainly by the services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.69 per cent and contributed 56.27 per cent to the aggregate GDP.”
According to the national statistics body, the agriculture sector grew by only 2.05 per cent in the period under review because of flooding experienced across the country.
It added, “Moreover, the Industry sector was yet challenged recording -0.94 per cent growth and contributing less to the aggregate GDP relative to the third quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2021.
Total aggregate GDP for 2022 stood at N199.34tn in nominal terms, higher than the N173.53tn that was recorded in 2021.
Real GDP amounted to N74.64tn in 2022, higher than the N72.39tn that was recorded in 2021.
The total annual contribution of oil to aggregate GDP in 2022 was 5.67 per cent, while non-oil contributed 94.33 per cent.
In 2022, Nigeria experienced its worst flooding incident in over a decade. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Human Affairs, over 4.4 million Nigerians were affected by flooding in 2022.
The Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development recently estimated that the 2022 floods led to a $9.12bn economic loss for the nation. This flooding incident led to increases in the prices of food, which translated to higher inflation in 2022.
In 2022, the World Bank predicted a GDP growth rate of 3.1 per cent for Nigeria because of inflation.
According to the global bank, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate averaged only 1.1 per cent between 2015 and 2021.
The International Monetary Fund predicted a 3.2 per cent GDP growth for Nigeria in 2022. According to the IMF, Nigerians should prepare for higher food prices in 2023 because of 2022 floods.
It explained that recent flood incidents have affected agricultural productivity. It said, ““The effects of recent flooding and high fertilizer prices could become more entrenched impacting negatively both agricultural production and food prices in 2023.”
During a recent ‘Climate Change and Food Insecurity in Sub-saharan Africa,’ event an analyst at the African Department IMF, Mai Farid, warned that the 2022 floods would worsen food insecurity and lead to further increase in food inflation.
