The World Health Organisation (WHO), has projected about 190,000 COVID-19 related deaths in Africa if not properly managed.
This estimate was drawn by WHO African region study on Thursday.
“Eighty-three thousand to 190 000 people in Africa could die of COVID-19 and 29 million to 44 million could get infected in the first year of the pandemic if containment measures fail,” the study said
Currently, data from worldometer said 2127 deaths have been recorded in Africa, with Egypt leading (495), Algeria ( 490) and Morroco (183). Nigeria has recorded over 100 fatalities.
The research was based on ‘prediction modelling’ and used 47 countries in the WHO African Region with a total population of one billion as case studies.
“The new estimates are based on modifying the risk of transmission and disease severity by variables specific to each country in order to adjust for the unique nature of the region,” the report said.
It observed “slower rate of transmission, lower age of people with severe disease and lower mortality rates compared to what is seen in the most affected countries in the rest of the world”.
“This is largely driven by social and environmental factors slowing the transmission, and a younger population that has benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis to reduce possible vulnerabilities,” it said.
According to the report, the lower rate of transmission “suggests a more prolonged outbreak over a few years.”
