By Matthew Page
Nigeria faces a deep economic depression at present. When the going was good, the masses enjoyed nothing of their resources as our leaders and top civil servants looted the nation dry to boost their own egos.
Can we get these monies back, just to survive the coming hard times?
OWNER ARCHETYPES
Politically exposed Nigerians appearing in the Sandcastles data fall into eight broad categories: state governors; state governors’ allies; heads of ministries, departments, and agencies; individuals already investigated or convicted by anticorruption agencies; petroleum sector officials; security sector figures; legislators; and suspected proxies. Only one judge and a handful of traditional leaders appeared in the Sandcastles data, suggesting that these types of elites have less appetite for Dubai property compared with their peers.
THEIR EXCELLENCIES: STATE GOVERNORS
More than twenty sitting or former governors—commonly referred to by their honorific “Excellency”— are linked to Dubai property, according to the Sandcastles data.49 Nigeria’s governors are political titans who often become very wealthy while in office. Most control states whose populations, budgets, and territory are on par with many mid-sized countries.
Abacha’s Money Man
Abubakar Atiku Bagudu—a key ruling party figure, current governor of Kebbi State, and political godfather of Nigeria’s attorney general—is well-known to international law enforcement agencies. Nevertheless, he is affiliated with eight properties worth over $4.8 million in total on the twelfth floor of Dubai’s Capital Bay Towers development, according to Sandcastles data.
Bagudu helped Nigeria’s former head of state Sani Abacha embezzle billions of dollars from government coffers in the mid to late 1990s, according to U.S. court filings. Bagudu has categorically denied all corruption allegations against him. A 1998 Nigerian government investigative panel described how Bagudu and his accomplices siphoned these funds:
General Sani Abacha directed Ismaïla Gwarzo, his National Security Adviser, to present him with false funding requests for security operations or equipment, which he had the power to authorize. For the most part, the funds were directly remitted in cash (US$1.131 billion and [British pound sterling] GBP 413 million) or in traveler’s cheques (US$50 million and GBP 3.5 million) by the CBN [Central Bank] to Ismaïla Gwarzo, who then had most of the funds taken to [Abacha’s] house. From there they were taken by his oldest son, Mohammed Abacha, and laundered through Nigerian banks or by Nigerian or foreign businessmen to offshore accounts belonging to Mohammed Abacha, Abba Abacha, Abdulkadir Abacha and Abubakar [Atiku] Bagudu. . . . At least US$1.491 billion and GBP 416 million had thus been found by the [panel] to have been embezzled by the Abacha criminal organization.
In another reported fraud scheme, Sani Abacha and his finance minister reportedly purchased government debt from a company controlled by Bagudu and Sani Abacha’s son, Mohammed Abacha, at greatly inflated prices, generating a $282 million windfall for the two men.
Nevertheless, the Nigerian government entered into a settlement agreement with Bagudu in 2003, which resolved all of the country’s claims against him in exchange for the relinquishment and return of certain assets to Nigeria. This cleared a path for him to enter civilian politics and win two senate elections (2009 and 2011) and two gubernatorial elections (2015 and 2019). When provided with an opportunity to comment on his possible connection to property in Dubai, Bagudu did not respond.
The Late Admiral
Out of all the governors listed in the Sandcastles data, Mohammed Alabi Lawal—former civilian governor of Kwara State (1999–2003) and military governor of Ogun State (1987–1990)—is tied to the most real estate: six properties with a total purchase price of over $2 million. At least one of those properties, a villa, was bought in January 2003, while Lawal was still in office.
As Kwara State governor, Lawal had a “widespread reputation for settling his scores by force” and pulled no punches in his bitter political rivalry with the Saraki family, according to U.S. diplomatic reporting.
Ahead of the 2003 election, Lawal allegedly paid then inspector general of police and fellow Dubai property owner, Tafa Balogun, 3 million British pounds ($4.8 million at the time) to exert pressure on Lawal’s opponent, Bukola Saraki. In 1989, during his time overseeing Ogun State, Lawal’s finance commissioner resigned, accusing him of embezzling money from the state treasury. Lawal died in 2006.
THEIR EXCELLENCIES’ FRIENDS: STATE GOVERNORS’ ALLIES
Several other senior state-level officials have links to high-end Dubai properties, either under their own auspices or possibly on behalf of their gubernatorial patrons.
Friends of Ibori
Four political associates of former Delta State governor James Ibori have ties to property in Dubai. In 2010, Emirati police arrested Ibori under an Interpol warrant, and he was subsequently extradited to the United Kingdom.
In 2012, he pleaded guilty to ten counts of fraud and money laundering involving at least $66 million. In 2017, Ibori returned to Nigeria after serving six years in prison and remains a major political figure in his home state. Although his associates may have used their own funds to purchase their properties, it is possible that they hold, or previously held, them on behalf of Ibori or purchased them with funds they received from the man who ran one of Nigeria’s most oil-rich states from 1999 to 2007.
Several former senior state officials linked to Ibori are tied to properties in Dubai. One is linked to four Dubai properties, purchased for a total of $3.8 million, according to Sandcastles data. Another is affiliated with a two-bedroom flat on the twenty-first floor of the DAMAC Residenze, which, according to the developer, “comes with all the trappings of an indulgent lifestyle” as well as “uninterrupted panoramic views of the ocean.”
The official reportedly purchased the apartment for over $1.5 million and also bought a flat in another development for $500,000.
A third Ibori ally is linked to a two-bedroom flat on the twenty-third floor of the DAMAC Residenze that he purchased for over $1.3 million.
Yet another is tied to four luxury flats in Dubai, purchased for just over $2 million in total.
Assorted Commissioners
In Nigerian state politics, commissioners are key lieutenants in their governors’ well-lubricated political machines. Preeminent among the ranks of these state-level cabinet members are commissioners of finance, who control opaque and porous state treasuries and function as governors’ de facto wealth managers.
There are at least three such commissioners with ties to Dubai property, according to the Sandcastles data. A former commissioner of finance from one northern state is linked to a two-bedroom flat in the Tuscan Residences development worth about $400,000.
Another former commissioner from a Niger Delta state is linked to two properties in Dubai Sports City. An ex-commissioner from a neighboring state is affiliated with a flat in the upscale Jumeirah Lakes Towers.
OGAS AT THE TOP: HEADS OF MINISTRIES, DEPARTMENTS, AND AGENCIES
Invoking Nigerians’ colloquial term for “boss” (oga), this category of elites includes current and former ministers, agency heads, top bureaucrats, and individuals associated with the presidency. Thirty-seven such people—linked to seventy luxury properties—appeared in the Sandcastles data. Many of these individuals are career government employees who earn modest salaries that remained static from 2011 until 2019, meaning that they lost value in real terms when the naira lost value over that period.
Even the highest-paid civil servants, including senior presidential advisers, earn just $32,000 per year.
Furthermore, under Nigeria’s constitution, public officials are forbidden from undertaking any form of outside employment except farming.
One senior official who managed a state-owned parastatal for roughly ten years is linked to a Dubai property worth over $864,000.
Another senior career civil servant who recently retired from a prominent state agency is linked to three luxury apartments worth over $900,000 in total, according to Sandcastles data.
A Household Name
Ahmadu Ali has been a main character in Nigeria’s political story for nearly five decades. As minister of education (1975–1978) under military rule, his decisions sparked widespread student protests, immortalized by the slogan “Ali Must Go!”
An army doctor trained in the United Kingdom, Ali went on to become a senator (1979–1983, 1992–1993), board chairman of the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital (1999–2003), and national chairman of the then ruling People’s Democratic Party (2005–2008). He was also chairman of the board at the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (2009–2011) when it allegedly facilitated a $6.8 billion fuel subsidy fraud scheme.
Marian Nneamaka Ali, his wife and also a physician, unsuccessfully ran for senate in 2007 but was rewarded with an appointment to the political party’s Board of Trustees.
In 2017, however, she defected to Buhari’s ruling All Progressives Congress party. Meanwhile, Ali’s son, Mamman Nesreddin Ali, controls Nasaman Oil, a company the EFCC prosecuted in 2012 for its alleged involvement in a N2.2 billion ($13.75 million at the time) fuel subsidy fraud scheme.
Ali and his wife and son are linked to eleven properties in Dubai, according to Sandcastles data. Seven of the properties are together worth at least $4 million; the other four are together worth an estimated $2 million.
Ali also owns two high-end London properties: a $10 million house near Hampstead Heath and a $1.3 million flat in Marylebone.
Ali did not respond when given an opportunity to comment on the aforementioned allegations or his family’s possible connection to property in Dubai.
Honorable Mentions
Former minister of petroleum Dauzia Loya “Dan” Etete (1995–1998) is also linked to a parcel of land in Emirate Hills worth over $920,000, according to Sandcastles data. Finance Uncovered highlighted Etete’s Dubai connections in its 2018 article “Nigerian Oil and Dubai Land,” revealing that he also owned a $500,000 apartment in the Palm Jumeirah’s Marina Residences.
It also exposed how Etete used an informal money changer to bring $21.5 million into Dubai.
This cash formed part of the $1.1 billion that two international oil companies paid Etete’s company, Malabu Oil and Gas, for the license to an oil block that Etete awarded to himself while minister.
Four other ministers—sitting and former—appear to be linked to Dubai property, including one tied to a villa, worth up to $800,000, in Dubai’s Arabian Ranches development.
Former Villa Aides
Working in the presidential villa, close to Nigeria’s most powerful figures, brings with it access and influence that can yield political and financial dividends. At least four former aides are linked to Dubai property. One is linked to four flats in the Burj Khalifa complex worth an estimated $2.6 million in total and a three-bedroom apartment worth over $490,000 in Dubai Marina.
Another is tied to an apartment in the Jumeirah Beach Residence—where the average sales price is now $586,000—according to Sandcastles data.
Another operates an email address that is linked to a Dubai property listed in the Sandcastles data.
The spouse of another former aide is connected to an apartment on the Palm Jumeirah, according to Sandcastles data.
KNOWN QUANTITIES: INDIVIDUALS ALREADY INVESTIGATED BY ANTICORRUPTION AGENCIES
Roughly one-quarter of all Nigerian PEP-linked properties appearing in the Sandcastles data can be linked to individuals who have previously been investigated, arrested, prosecuted, or convicted by Nigeria’s anticorruption agencies.
This category includes, for example, a man the EFCC arrested in 2010 for smuggling gold from Nigeria to Dubai; he is connected to five Dubai properties purchased for a total of $1.4 million.
These significant property holdings by individuals pursued by Nigerian law enforcement illustrate the failure of Dubai authorities and corporate service providers to conduct basic due diligence—or even simple internet searches—on foreign buyers.
It also suggests that Emirati authorities have not given Nigerian anticorruption agencies free access to Dubai property and other financial records or to the details of suspicious transactions.
This may change following the 2018 ratification of bilateral legal assistance, arrest, extradition, and asset recovery agreements signed by Nigeria and the UAE in 2016, though EFCC investigators doubt cooperation will improve significantly.
The activities of these known quantities demonstrate how easy it is for PEPs and other individuals engaged in corruption and other criminal activities in Nigeria to travel to, buy property in, and undertake illicit activities in Dubai.
The Ibru Network
Twenty-four properties linked to Cecilia Ibru—the politically connected former managing director of Oceanic Bank convicted of fraud in 2010—appear in the Sandcastles data. Cecilia’s husband, Michael Ibru, created one of Nigeria’s foremost political and business dynasties. His brother, Felix Ibru, was governor of Delta State during the Third Republic (1992–1993) and later senator (2003–2007). Another brother, Alex Ibru, was a businessman and newspaper owner who served as Abacha’s interior minister (1993–1995).
Already associated with a wealthy and powerful family, Cecilia gained additional notoriety when in 2010, as the chief executive of Oceanic Bank, her malfeasance led to the sudden collapse of one of Nigeria’s five largest banks. Under a plea bargain with the EFCC, she plead guilty to three of twenty-five counts of fraud and agreed to forfeit $1.2 billion in stolen cash and assets.
These assets included twelve homes in the United States, four homes in South Africa, twenty-eight shop fronts and seven residences in Dubai, forty-one properties in Lagos, Nigeria, and eight houses in Abuja, Nigeria.
Despite her criminal record, Cecilia Ibru and her family members and associates were still connected to dozens of properties in Dubai as recently as 2016, according to Sandcastles data. These linkages include eight apartments in the Park Towers development purchased for a total of $4.3 million, a flat in Dubai Marina now worth about $500,000, and four commercial properties, according to Sandcastles data.
The Moneychanger
Nigeria’s enterprising kleptocrats rely on the country’s hundreds of independently run currency exchanges to launder stolen naira, converting it into dollars for easier storage or movement abroad—a practice Buhari lambasted as “a scam and a drain on the economy.”
Some elites even cut out the middle man by using “boutique” currency exchanges they personally control. These businesses are obliged to report suspicious transactions involving politically exposed Nigerians to the Central Bank but few do.
One such currency exchange operator, Mohammed Saminu Ibrahim Khalil, is linked to over $3 million in Dubai property, according to Sandcastles data. In 2013, his business, named Dan Kawu, was accused of facilitating a N2.05 billion bank fraud (worth $12.8 million at the time).
Though it is not apparent that the EFCC succeeded in its efforts to prosecute Khalil or Dan Kawu, the commission remains accredited by the Central Bank.100 Likewise, Khalil was able to buy a three-bedroom luxury apartment in the DAMAC Residenze and a similar flat in Flamingo Cove, even listing his Dan Kawu email address on the purchase records.101 When given an opportunity to comment on these allegations or his possible connection to property in Dubai, Khalil did not respond.
Deep Dive: The 120 Million Dollar Man
Shehu Badamasi, a businessman involved in the technology and petroleum sectors, created a Dubai property empire worth over $120 million, according to the Sandcastles data. He accomplished this despite being well-known to Nigerian law enforcement. Badamasi asserts that he and his companies do not, as of February 2020, own any Dubai real estate.
When asked to clarify whether he owned property prior to 2016—the period covered by the Sandcastles data—he did not deny owning it.
The EFCC has arrested Badamasi at least twice, according to press reports. In 2009, he was arrested for alleged criminal conspiracy, fraud, and diversion of credit facility worth roughly N17.7 billion ($147.5 million in 2008 dollars).
He was arrested again in 2016 for allegedly defrauding a businessman of N2.3 billion ($6.4 million at the time).In both instances, Badamasi was not prosecuted. One of his companies, Al-Kahf Resources, also owned a vessel that was detained by the Nigerian Navy in 2010 for alleged involvement in illegal oil bunkering, reportedly released under suspicious circumstances in 2012, and then reinvestigated by the Office of the National Security Adviser in 2016.
Badamasi appears to have owned Dubai property through two firms he controls. Through Nujuum Ventures, he was linked to eighty-nine properties.
He also holds an 11 percent stake in Secure Electronic Technology (formerly the Nigerian Sports Lottery) through Nujuum.
Badamasi’s other major corporate vehicle is Tanzila Petroleum, a petroleum products trading company.
Through Tanzila, he was affiliated with twenty-five Dubai properties, purchased for a total of $25.7 million according to Sandcastles data. He also registered companies of the same name—albeit for unknown purposes—in Canada and France, according to corporate records.
The EFCC reportedly views Badamasi as “well rooted within the security agencies and the corridors of power,” according to a 2016 press report.
While no allegation is made against Badamasi of moving ill-gotten gains, he appears to have spent tens of millions of dollars on scores of luxury properties in Dubai despite the investigations facing him. The very large size of these transactions in circumstances where he was the subject of a number of investigations suggests that the transactions merit closer scrutiny. It is important to note, however, that Badamasi and his companies have never been prosecuted for any wrongdoing.
When given an opportunity to respond to this information, Badamasi denied any wrongdoing and noted that “although both Nujuum Ventures and Tanzila are my business names, none of them has $1 investment in Dubai or any Middle East real estate development as at the time of writing this response.”
PETRO PERSONALITIES: PETROLEUM SECTOR OFFICIALS
Top Nigerian officials’ easy access to a steady stream of petroleum revenues underpins the country’s corruption problem. Not only does this income constitute over 75 percent of total government receipts and well over 90 percent of export earnings, it fuels politicians’ elaborate patronage networks and highly evolved corruption schemes. The epicenter of such corruption is the state oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which operates with minimal oversight and shuns international best practices. Its top officials typically partner with the president’s administration and petroleum ministry to enrich themselves and their cronies. Eleven individuals linked to the NNPC have ties to Dubai property, according to the Sandcastles data. Several of these individuals were or are career civil servants bound by the Code of Conduct.
At least one former NNPC group managing director has ties Dubai property. Shehu Ladan—a career government official who briefly served as NNPC managing director from April to May 2010—was linked to a flat in Dubai Marina. He died suddenly in Dubai in October 2011.
Another NNPC alumni linked to Dubai property is Samuel Chuba Okeke, who served as managing director of the Petroleum Products Marketing Company—NNPC’s corruption-prone downstream subsidiary—from April 2010 to February 2011. According to Sandcastles data, Okeke is affiliated with a villa in Jumeirah Park worth roughly $1.1 million and a property in the high-end Jumeirah Beach Residences, where the average apartment sells for $614,000.115
In 2017, the EFCC seized nine properties in Dubai worth N1.6 billion (US$4.4 million at the time) from Okeke’s successor, Haruna Momoh. In late 2010, Okeke was allegedly involved in a $400 million corruption scandal in which officials of the Petroleum Products Marketing Company deliberately delayed the offloading of imported refined products in exchange for kickbacks from the demurrage fees charged by the vessel owners.
An NNPC spokesman at the time vehemently denied the allegation, dismissing it as “character assassination.”
However, seven senior NNPC officials were sacked in 2004 for committing this type of fraud, raking in $108 million.
Okeke did not respond when given an opportunity to comment on these allegations or links he may have to Dubai property.
SECURITY SECTOR FIGURES
Nigeria has one of the most corruption-prone security sectors in the world, according to Transparency International.
Opaque and subject to minimal civilian oversight, it is replete with opportunities for security officials and their business associates to accumulate unexplained wealth. These opportunities include inflating procurement contract values or even creating phantom contracts funneled to defense contractors in exchange for kickbacks. Outright embezzlement of operational funds, troop allowances, and even retiree pensions is also rife. At the same time, however, even the most senior military and police officers are modestly paid, with the average major general or equivalent earning only about $40,000 per year. As a result, it is more difficult for such individuals to explain high dollar purchases such as luxury Dubai property.
Analysis of the Sandcastles data reveals that senior security officials and other individuals involved in the security sector have ties to seventy-one properties in Dubai. This group includes the following:
Two former chairmen of the Military Pensions Board—including retired Rear Admiral Bala Mohammed Mshelia (2011–2013)—are linked to three properties. One purchased a flat in the Lago Vista complex for $670,000, while Mshelia is linked to two flats in Dubai Marina worth up to a total of $1 million, according to Sandcastles data.
The EFCC has prosecuted Mshelia—who also served as chief of accounts and budget at Naval Headquarters—for his alleged involvement in an N600 million (worth $3.6 million at the time of the alleged offense in March 2014) corruption scheme led by former navy chief Usman Jibrin.
Mshelia did not respond when given the opportunity to comment on these unproven allegations.
Former inspector general of police Tafa Balogun (2002–2005) was successfully prosecuted by the EFCC in its first high-profile corruption case, but he is nevertheless linked to two apartments, including one now worth an estimated $600,000 within the upscale Shams 4 complex in the Jumeirah Beach Residence.
Although the EFCC seized up to $150 million worth of Balogun’s assets, it appears they were unable to locate Balogun’s Dubai property holdings, perhaps because the agency did not request—or did not receive—help from Emirati authorities.
Another former senior customs official is linked to three properties purchased for $800,000 in total, according to Sandcastles data.126
LEGISLATORS
Despite the corruption opportunities available to them, just seven sitting and former senators, linked to thirty-two properties, appear in the Sandcastles data. Likewise, only seven members or alumni of the 360-strong House of Representatives, linked to eleven properties, appear in the data. Two former speakers of state legislatures have connections with one property each.
Two individuals with the same distinctive last name as the current clerk of the National Assembly—the person responsible for managing the day-to-day finances and operations of the legislature—are also linked to property in Dubai, according to Sandcastles data.
Nigerian press reports indicated that the EFCC questioned the clerk in May 2019 over his alleged financial misconduct.
Deep Dive: A Duo of Deputies
Two of Nigeria’s former deputy senate presidents—senator Ibrahim Mantu (1999–2007) and senator Ike Ekweremadu (2007–2019)—are separately linked to multiple luxury properties in Dubai.
A close ally of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, Mantu, who entered politics in 1999, turned out to be one of Nigeria’s most controversial deputy senate presidents. In that role, he orchestrated the unpopular attempt to change the constitution to allow Obasanjo to serve a third term. This contentious effort allegedly involved disbursing huge bribes to legislators or intimidating them, according to U.S. diplomats at the time.
Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai accused Mantu of soliciting bribes from him in 2003 in exchange for supporting his confirmation as a minister in Obasanjo’s cabinet.
Politically wounded by his unwavering support for Obasanjo, Mantu lost his 2007 reelection bid.
Mantu is linked to twelve Dubai properties purchased for a total of over $10 million through a front company, TSE Stevedoring Nigeria.
Mantu’s wife and sons own 70 percent of the company, according to corporate records. Through another company, A-Z Properties, Mantu also is linked to a $600,000 flat in the Jumeirah Beach Residences. His son Musa is also tied to a comparable flat in the same development.
When given the opportunity to comment on their alleged links to Dubai property, the Mantu family did not respond.
Mantu’s successor, Ekweremadu, is a career politician. First elected senator for the Enugu West zone in 2003, he has been reelected four times since. Before joining the senate, he served as secretary to the State Government of Enugu State (2001–2003), chief of staff to the governor of Enugu State (1999–2001), and local government chairman (1997–1998). Prior to entering politics at age thirty-four, Ekweremadu practiced law in Enugu.
According to the Sandcastles data, Ekweremadu is connected to eight Dubai properties, with an estimated total value in excess of $7 million. These include a luxury flat in Park Towers bought for $2.2 million and one in Burj Dubai purchased for $1.4 million. According to the United Kingdom’s public records, Ekweremadu is also linked to at least two properties in the country, purchased between 2008 and 2011 for a total of GBP4.2 million ($6.5 million in 2011 dollars). One of these properties, an upscale flat in central London, is registered in the name of Ekweremadu’s charitable foundation.
The second, a detached house in a leafy north London suburb, is owned by a shell company registered in the British Virgin Islands. Through his spokesman, Ekweremadu has denied owning “purported ‘hidden properties’” and has stated “unequivocally that he declared all his assets with the Code of Conduct Bureau as required by law.”140
SUSPECTED PROXIES
Out of the 800 suspected Nigerian PEP-linked properties identified through analysis of the Sandcastles data, over 200 belonged to likely proxies. Whether acting on behalf of wealthy clients, appearing fictitious, or sharing identifiers (names, email addresses, phone numbers) of working-class Nigerians, these proxies are connected to many luxury Dubai properties.
Such individuals include a Lagos-based lawyer linked to a $6.6 million property, a consultant from Rivers State affiliated with six properties purchased for $3.3 million in total, a businessman who owns a small consumer electronics shop in a suburb of Abuja with ties to a property worth $1 million, and a Lagos market stall trader who sells handbags but is connected to a flat in Dubai.
NOTABLE ABSENCES
Several governors and other top officials rumored to own high-end Dubai property do not appear in the data.
One notable name missing from the Sandcastles data is Chief of Army Staff Tukur Buratai. In 2016, he weathered press reports that he had acquired two Dubai properties in 2013, reportedly registered in the name of his wife. Nigerian authorities cleared Buratai of any wrongdoing, with the army asserting that he had paid for the properties out of his personal savings in 2013 and had consistently declared them on subsequent asset declarations made to the Code of Conduct Bureau.
Aside from these notable absences, it is possible that other politically exposed Nigerians may still own or otherwise control Dubai property through alternative mechanisms or may have been omitted from the Sandcastle data. These could include anonymous shell companies registered in secrecy jurisdictions, opaque Dubai-registered companies, or family members or other proxies. It is also possible that these individuals bought Dubai property after—or sold it before—the period covered by the Sandcastles data or that parts of the data are missing or incomplete.
It is equally possible, however, that Nigerian media outlets and gossiping elites sometimes fabricate or overstate such claims for political gain. Ironically, the secrecy surrounding Dubai property records enables such rumor-mongering insofar as it is just as difficult for a politician to convincingly debunk such allegations. It is, however, equally tough for investigative journalists or anticorruption activists to prove that the same politician does indeed own—or effectively control—a luxury flat in a city that allows the world’s kleptocrats to buy and sell property on a no-questions-asked basis.
Matthew Page wrote for Carnegie Endowment, March 2020
