By Kristi Pelzel
As the United States works to sort out its issues at home, the U.S Department of State under the Trump Administration reprioritizes efforts to fight terrorists in West Africa. Meanwhile, according to the Biden transition office, the Biden-Harris team is already speaking to world leaders in a self-directed effort, without official backing from U.S government agencies.
Joe Biden, speaking on the delay in formally recognizing him as president-elect, has said it is “not of much consequence.” However, the U.S election is yet to be certified, and the Biden-Harris path to the presidency, likely, but only upheld by the media and his supporters until the Electoral Colleges can determine a proper outcome.
Electoral College meets on 14, December 2020. The Secretary of State of each State is the legal authority in charge of the conduct of elections. Electoral College is a convocation of delegates representing voters. It does not conduct elections. It formally confirms votes already cast by the citizens of the States. Elections are based on State law under the supervision of the Secretary of State of each State.
These internal conflicts can confuse and bottleneck foreign affairs. Still, as enthusiastically as we see the Biden-Harris team ready for the transfer of power, we also see the Trump Administration carrying on and settling in for what they hope will be another four years.
In a Tweet made on Veterans Day in the U.S., Secretary of State Mike Pompeo reconfirmed support for rooting out terrorists in West Africa.
“Great progress was made at yesterday’s virtual Global @Coalition to Defeat ISIS meeting on West Africa. We will use all tools at our disposal to counter ISIS and its affiliates anywhere in the world. My thanks to Nigeria for co-hosting the event.” November 11, 2020 – Secretary Pompeo
According to “The Global Coalition” website, “The Global Coalition against Daesh was formed in September 2014, supported by 83 partner countries.”
ISIS terrorists, known in West Africa as Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), find it easier to operate amongst the instability of the poorest and most under-developed countries, launching sophisticated attacks and claiming territory. Besides ISWAP and Boko Haram, in Nigeria, Ansaru reemerged after more than five years, exploiting northwestern Nigeria in January of this year, increasing the loss of control in the region.
Why now and why Nigeria?
“The U.S. is losing the competition in Africa against China, Russia, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State,” said Katherine Zimmerman, an analyst with the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “It’s not losing militarily, but in the soft-power space.” Zimmerman’s comment in the New York Times article, by Eric Schmitt, in Feb of 2020, is supported by the news of frequent high-level foreign engagement with Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari in closed and open discussions on increased and expanded partnerships with non-U.S. countries.
India was reported as Nigeria’s biggest trading partner in 2019 in a World Export Report, with the U.S. coming in seventh.
Russia has returned after a twenty-five-year absence from the continent, taking opportunities to sell arms and send military advisers to fill the absence of Western partners.
Russia would like to help Nigeria explore oil and gas, pledging to build nuclear power plants, petroleum pipelines, railways, and infrastructure. Putin also agreed to supply 12 Mi-35 attack helicopters to Nigeria in 2019, and they have since inked the deal.
However, at $369,000,000 (USD) in funding support for Nigeria in 2020 alone, you’d think the U.S. would have less competition in the region (OCHA 2020 Financial Tracking Service). To better understand you’d need to unpack all of the China-led projects taking place in the country like three key projects in Nigeria’s power sector estimated at $10 billion (USD), just to start. And you cannot underestimate the power of diplomacy, which leads to relationships, to loyalty, and to political preference. It’s everything, all the time, all at once. – No one said foreign affairs was easy.
America routinely forges and severs diplomatic ties with nations, even where no U.S. interest is at stake. In February of 2020, the Trump Administration added Nigeria to the list of countries facing travel restrictions saying Nigerians who traveled to the United States on visas would never “go back to their huts.” These comments and policies probably don’t help those on the ground, maintaining positive and productive relationships.
Is this latest move to support the fight against terrorists, we ask, a strategy to strengthen alliances? Did the U.S. really underestimate the threat to the homeland or Niger regional assets, or is there a new threat to the U.S. at the Nigeria border?
To diplomats, it might appear as though the U.S. military is being used as the only point of positive connection in the region where other diplomatic efforts have fallen short. To the military community, working outside soft-policy, they assume a new or emerging threat to the U.S. Homeland as a reason to increase engagement and support. Then, to others in politics, they see these actions as part of Trump’s plan to dig in as Commander-in-Chief to counter Biden’s public declaration of a presidential win before the election is certified.
There is an operational U.S. drone base, Niger Air Base 201, owned by the Nigerien military, threatened by increased terror activity, making it more challenging to operate in the region. This must certainly be a motivation to reduce terrorist’s control over the region.
Headlines and images of increased capabilities are emerging, “Thursday, April 30, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) shared a picture of a camouflage painted pickup truck fitted with four Grad 122mm unguided rocket launcher tubes mounted at the rear of the vehicle.” – Ham Angle, May 2020 Abdullahi
“The Nigerian military has arrested 28 informants leaking operational secrets to the Boko Haram terrorists”. – Switch, May 2020
With access to advanced capabilities, the purported murder of ISWAP leaders not in step with ISIS’s plan, and a network of terrorist spies being identified, ISIS seems to be pushing for greater control and influence over these regionally fractured and previously poorly funded groups.
The United States has renewed its commitment to one of Nigeria’s biggest problems, and if that’s what U.S. electoral political conflict gets them, I am sure they’ll be more than happy to take it. Still, as the administrations sort out who will lead the way after January, the soft policy must be a priority, disrupting the U.S.’s legacy of unnecessarily breaking diplomatic relationships and then scrambling to reclaim it.
Kristi Pelzel is an international communications consultant and advisor working across U.S. and African markets. Her industry experience spans 10 years in broadcast, digital, and social media communication. Kristi holds a B.A. from the Academy of Art University, San Francisco, California, and an M.A. from Georgetown University, Washington, D.C.
