Australia’s extreme COVID-19 lockdown yields dividends in zero new domestic infection

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Australia’s extreme lockdown brought coronavirus cases in its epicentre to zero. It may also have prevented a third wave.

At the peak of its coronavirus outbreak in late July, Australia recorded more than 700 daily cases.

The outbreak was concentrated in the southern state of Victoria, which has tallied roughly three-quarters of Australia’s total coronavirus infections and more than 90% of its coronavirus deaths.

But Victoria recorded zero new COVID-19 cases on Monday — a milestone it hadn’t reached in more than four months — and zero again on Tuesday.

That victory came after a sacrifice: Victoria’s capital city, Melbourne, was under lockdown for 111 days. During that time, residents were only allowed to leave home for essential work, exercise or recreation, care or caregiving, and shopping for food or other essential items.

“It’s been a brilliant success,” Adrian Esterman, an epidemiologist at the University of South Australia, told Business Insider. “There’s been a huge cost to people’s mental health and lots of people out of work, but it’s worked.”

Curfews, fines, and travel restrictions
Australia had an advantage over most countries from the start: It’s an island with relatively low population density. But its rules were still far stricter than in many other countries.

For several months, Melbourne residents could only travel within 5 kilometers (3 miles) of their homes. In October, the Victorian government expanded that radius to 25 kilometers.

As of August, essential workers could be fined up to $1,652 ($1,165 US dollars) for not carrying a permit while traveling to and from work.

There were also fines for not wearing a mask in public: As of July 22, Melbourne residents ages 12 and older were required to wear face coverings outside their homes or risk a $200 ($141 US dollars) penalty. Businesses that discouraged employees from wearing masks could face a $9,913 ($6,992 US dollars) fine.

On top of that, Melbourne restricted public gatherings to just two people or a single household starting in July. Then in August, the city imposed a curfew that prohibited residents from going out between the hours of 9 p.m. and 5 a.m. By late September, Melbourne started allowing public gatherings of five people from two households, but any more than that and violators could be fined $4,957 ($3,497 US dollars).

“There have been lots of people who argue that they were too severe, that perhaps we could have got down to a low number of cases without some of the heavier restrictions they put in, and for so long, but we can’t go back,” Esterman said. “The fact of matter is that the restrictions they did put on have worked. We’re now at zero cases.”

Early interventions kept transmission low
Australia’s government started testing and contact tracing in late January, when it had only detected a handful of cases. In mid-March, as cases started to rise, Australia banned gatherings of more than 500 people and told anyone arriving from outside the country to self-isolate for two weeks.

“Nearly all the cases were imported — in fact, they were all imported,” Esterman said. “So at that stage, it was manageable and Australia did extremely well. We acted very, very early, not like a lot of other countries.”

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