Nigeria at fever pitch on election eve: Why the country may be disappointed yet again

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By Labode Obanor

As with previous elections, Nigeria is experiencing a wave of civil and political delirium analogous to a fever-out break. The pandemonium is ubiquitously in every direction. From sprawling metropolitan in the capitals to rural settlements in countryside, inner city downtowns to villages in the hinterlands, the people whipped themselves up in a frenzy rampant in civil, social, political, and religious gatherings. Discussions surrounding the February 25th, 2023, elections bring the people another bite at hope. Even the diaspora community constrained from voting is not spared of the election spasm.

The strongest indicator is in the flurries of amateur videos circulating small, big, and social media spaces, heated discussions, capturing the hysteria from the streets, affirming the people’s resolve that this election would be a defining one capable of turning the nation’s fortunes. The dream is that the country can finally elect compassionate and competent leaders with hearts for the people.

But not so fast. Before reaching such a verdict, we must examine this expectation of the people to see if it stands on firm footing and not mere fantasy.

A cursory glimpse at history offers guidance and patterns that might otherwise be invisible in the present. The pointer is that this election won’t be different than the last four, eighth, or even twenty years because the political and social economic landscape, including the impetus for a striving democratic society, are still missing even after almost 25 years of heralding the fourth republic.

The country is on the verge of making the same mistake as in all past elections, where messianic figures spout a better Nigeria if elected, only for the candidates to build on a shaky foundation. Of course, austere management, ineptitude, and incompetence all add to the mix, leading to buyer’s remorse. Disillusionment and disenchantment set in, and the country suffer yet again.

Follow me as history gives us a perspective in understanding this current furor.

In 1999, after fifteen years of despotism, Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ), just released after being imprisoned in 1995 for alleged coup offenses against General Sani Abacha’s military junta, was selected almost unopposed as the favorite to be the first president to usher in a civilian rule.  In his campaign for president, he promised reform, poverty alleviation, reduced government corruption, and put the country on the path of growth. However, after 8years of presiding over Nigeria’s affairs, the country regressed, and its prospects declined. More rampant was ethnic and religious strife surrounding the adoption of sharia law in the Muslim-dominated north, a painful loss of its territory, the oil-rich Bakassi peninsula, to the nation of Cameroon. Massive corruption in high and low places permeated his government and his cabinet.

Nigeria’s currency plummeted. The Naira lost value from N75 to $1 in March 1999 to an exchange of N114 to $1. Fuel prices rose from N20 per liter to N70. The cost of food and basic amenities necessary to support life soared. Although this period is considered today as the “good old days,” it was economic pain to the people whose living standards dropped as the cost of living grew.

So by the 2007 election, Nigerians were financially and socially exhausted. After resisting Obasanjo’s bid to change the constitution so that he could run for a third term, Nigerians shifted their hope to a professor and former governor born to an elite Fulani family. Convinced that Umaru Musa Yar Adua was what the country needed to restore it from a rigged and fallen system.

In his campaign, candidate Yar Adua touts his financial prudence and socioeconomic development as the former governor of Katsina state. And the record bears witness that “not only did he pay down the huge state debt that he had inherited, but also accumulated a $50 million surplus in the treasury,” which he left for his successor.”

However, after three years of Mr. Yar Adua’s presidency, he could not maintain the development program initiated by his predecessor, failed to establish peace in the Niger Delta, unable to stem the widespread, systematic corruption in government houses across the country, and was dogged with failing health that saw him frequently going out of the country to seek medical care. Yar Adua popularized “medical tourism” as a household term in Nigeria.

Although fuel price remained stable at N65 a liter primarily because of government subsidy, the Naira further deepened in value, trading at N145 to $1. Nigeria saw its economic pain worsen as the price of imported goods which the country relied on, became unaffordable. It was a total letdown. Yar Adua will eventually die in office because he never fully recovers from his illness. His Vice, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, succeeded him.

Once again, Nigeria, with renewed hope that perhaps Jonathan, a Niger Delta man who understands the plight and suffering of the people in the South-South because he hails from there, would help broker peace in a conflict that threatens to plunge the country into another civil war. After completing Yar Adua’s term, Mr. Jonathan, in his campaign, made a series of exhilarating promises which brought fresh hope to Nigerians. Many describe his candidacy as “fresh and dynamic,” a commoner who was once  shoeless undoubtedly is destined to bring “hope, restoration, transformation and, yes, “good luck” to a blessed nation that has long been abandoned in the harsh desert of gross maladministration and corruption.”

A mystical candidate with a seraphic name is what the country finally needs. And expectedly, Nigerians lashed on and rallied around him. He symbolizes the Nigerian version of Sir Galahad coming with shining armor to liberate the people from their afflictions.

However, just like his predecessors, he failed to stop the bleeding. After a full term and a half, Nigeria was once again stunned and frustrated and could not see any positive or reassurance in their disappointed hopes. When Mr. Jonathan tries to run for re-election, the country resoundingly sends him packing. Of course, by the time he left office, petrol price had more than doubled to N145, and the Naira had taken a steep dive to N205, to $1.

Then came Mr. “I belong to everybody, and I belong to nobody,” The current and soon-to-be formal president Muhammad Buhari. With a reputation of incorruptible, Nigerians showered him with praise. His military resume also made him an attractive candidate to stamp out government corruption, improve the lives of Nigerians, and bring stability to a faltering country on the brink of collapse brought on by ethnic and religious terrorism made possible by an Islamic militant group, Boko Haram.

After his election, Buhari vowed to crush Boko haram, fix the spate of violence and insecurity and stabilize the economy. Stating: “I assure you that Boko Haram will soon know the strength of our collective will and commitment to rid this nation of terror and bring back peace…” He pledged to eradicate “the evil of corruption” “There shall no longer be a ruling party again” he said “the APC will be a governing party. We shall faithfully serve.”

He did not stop there. “You shall be able to go to bed knowing that you are safe and that your constitutional rights remain in safe hands…you shall be able to voice your opinion without fear of reprisal or victimization…you are all my people, and I shall treat every one of you as my own.” Quite a supercilious promise, one might say. Nonetheless, Nigerians were awestruck. The mountaintop was not only visible but reachable. Buhari is the man to take them there.

Not learning any lesson from the past, they chased out Jonathan and clung to Buhari, the new champion, protector, and defender of human rights and dignity.

But just like in the past and now eight years of ruling, the country further plunged into economic despair and stretched to its breaking point.

Since Buhari became president, the story has been one woe on another. Nigeria became the world’s poverty capital. Hunger, pain, and immeasurable deaths inundate the land—deaths from preventable institutional and infrastructural failures. From the incalculable vehicular deaths in the nation’s hazardous roadways to the avoidable ones in the rickety hospitals paralyzed due to underfunding. The episodic power supply and the brazen killings perpetrated by armed bandits, kidnappers, machete-wielding cattle herders, terrorists, and on and on, the harrowing tale did not stop there.

Now fuel and money scarcity due to the disastrous launching of new Naira notes.  It is like the four horsemen of the apocalypse rides through Nigeria, ensuring the people get no reprieve.

For several weeks, Nigerians could not access their own money lodged in the banks. People could not buy or sell in a country where cash still rules. Rampant POS marauders exploited the people’s pain to trade naira notes at an exorbitant price, making windfalls on the back of distressed Nigerians who desperately needed money to buy food. This Buhari story has been a saga of untold misery and hardship, a fever wave of suffering across the land.

As he prepares to exit the stage, he leaves behind tales of unmitigated gloom and misery, a worthless currency at a jaw-dropping N760 to $1, fuel price at N600 a liter in black markets because of its unavailability. Ironically, Nigeria has more crude oil reserves than 95 percent of the world. Our “no-nonsense” “incorruptible messiah” could not fix the country’s problem but spearheaded its disastrous descent into a security and economic sinkhole.

Now another election day looms; the indices show that we still do not have an epiphany about our experience. While the electorates should still vote for the best candidate, they must be wary of speeches and promises delivered in sententious, messianic fervor and aplomb. They must pick candidates and cast their votes to signal that they will not be deceived again.

As stated above, politicians’ statements in the last two decades were not only misleadingly optimistic, but are all cheap campaign talk with no genuine desire to fulfill them. And sadly, they still are today. We must not be under the hallucination that our fortune will change in a few years or be gripped by the same dogmatic delusion of the past 20 years that made us feel either excited and act like little children or confused and act like silly children. But instead, the voters should let their vote demonstrate their anger at the current state of affairs and resentment at the system and politicians that put them there. Our shared pain and suffering should be our “social glue” which should foster solidarity and cohesion to change the status quo.

While it may be correct to hold on to hope that the situation will improve after the election of a new president, there is palpable evidence and a good reason to be skeptical as we head to the polls.

Email: JlaBode74@gmail.com

Twitter: @Obanor

3 COMMENTS

  1. We are only focused for a better tomorrow after this election. There is always a time for things to turn around and that time is now. We move with the best candidate.

  2. For the records, Nigerians never voted for the current president as displeasures were expressed at every quarter with regards the declaration that he won the election.there were alot of fraud and malpractices associated with his election and reelection.
    It’s unfortunate that due to the stress and untold hardship bedeviling our great nation, citizens are searching for one who will redeem her and in such state,we are blinded from seeing realities on ground.
    Certainly,Nigerians want change will no longer be sweet talked into any direction by politicians.
    To have a better Nigeria depends on all of us: a president that has a new Nigeria heart,citizens who are willing to endure a bit of suffering to right the foundation of our Nation and this certainly is not gonna be easy.we also need parliamentarians who wants a better Nigeria.
    Until we get to that realization that we all need to re erect a new country from it’s foundation,we will still not get it right whether it’s Obi ,Tinubu or Atiku.
    And let’s note that to build a new Nigeria,we must experience some hardship hence the question is Are we ready to for the hardship that will make Nigeria better??
    Wishing Nigeria the best and a blood free election ?

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