Nigeria sneaks out of recession with 0.11% GDP growth in Q4 2020

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Factual Pursuit of Truth for Progress

 

By Francis Ogwo

The economy of Nigeria’s bounced back in the fourth quarter of last year (Q4’20) as the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew year-on-year by 0.11 percent, with aggregate GDP at N43.5trillion.

This figure represents the first positive growth in the last three quarters of 2020 where GDP stood at 1.87 percent, -6.10 percent and -3.6 percent respectively. The economy however contracted by 1.92 percent for the full year 2020.

Reports say the non-oil sector was responsible for the return to positive GDP growth as it recorded 1.69% growth in Q4 2020, as against 2.51 contraction recorded in Q3’2020.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had n its GDP Report (Q4’20) released on Thursday stated that the positive growth reflected the gradual return of economic activities in the country, following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters of the reviewed period.

According to the report: “Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.11 percent (y/yr) in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

“Though weak, the positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.

“As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than growth rate recorded the previous year by 2.44 percent points, it was higher by 3.74 percent points compared to Q3’20.

“On a quarter on quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.7 percent indicating a second positive consecutive quarter on quarter real growth rate in 2020 after two negative quarters.

“Overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92 percent, a decline of 4.20 percentage points when compared to the 2.27 percent recorded in 2019.

“In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43.5 trillion in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39.5 trillion, representing a y/y nominal growth rate of 10.07 percent.

“This growth rate was lower relative to growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2019 by –2.26 percent points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.7 percentage points with growth rates recorded at 12.3 percent and 3.4 percent respectively.

“The oil sector contributed 5.9 percent to total real GDP in Q4’20, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.3 percent and 8.7 percent respectively. For 2020, the Non-Oil sector contributed 91.8 percent to real GDP, higher than 91.2 percent recorded in 2019.”

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