US Annual Threat Assessment warns of ‘diverse array’ of global threats

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On April 9, 2021, Director of the United States National Intelligence, Avail Haines, coordinating with the US intelligence community, released its Annual Threat Assessment report. The dossier of worldwide threats to the national security of the United States, responds to Section 617 of the FY21 Intelligence Authorization Act (P.L. 116-260). “This report reflects the collective insights of the Intelligence Community (IC), which is committed every day to providing the nuanced, independent, and unvarnished intelligence that policymakers, warfighters, and domestic law enforcement personnel need to protect American lives and America’s interests anywhere in the world,” the report read.

By focusing on the most direct, serious threats to the United States for 2022, the report highlighted climate change and environmental degradation as two ‘near-term focus threats that require robust intelligence response’ in order to prevent escalation in the near future. The unclassified document was provided to the congressional intelligence committees, as well as the committees on the Armed Services of the House of Representatives and the US Senate.

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korean Provocative Actions

Addressing China’s push for global power, the US intelligence report noted that disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic combined with other external forces of nature, empowered non-state actors. Technological evolution has also posed new threats; public health risks, humanitarian concerns, social and political instability, and geopolitical rivalry.

The report cited that “Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic.” China in particular was ‘challenging the United States in multiple areas while pushing to change global norms. Russia’s attack on Washington coopts external forces globally, while Iran and North Korean were listed as regional menace, all exercising military, cyber, and economic capabilities in confrontation to US and allied forces.

Beijing will work externally to spread China’s influence as advantageous over US efforts, an example is in its display of superiority in containing the COVID-19 pandemic, and assertions of sovereignty over Taiwan. China will also seek internal cohesion while working with Washington as a tactical opportunity that will guarantee the survival of the Chinese Communist Party (CPP). China, Russia and Iran’s military capabilities, weapons of mass destruction (WMD), space, and cyberspace activities were also focused in the report.

The US has also noted provocative actions of China, Russia and Iran, directed at undermining US intelligence in the conduct of its elections. Efforts to usurp authority over shaping the narrative of the political environment, took various forms like sowing seeds of doubt about US commitment to a democratic society.

COVID-19 and Transnational Issues

In relation to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the US Annual Threat Assessment summarized that, “no country has been completely spared, and even when a vaccine is widely distributed globally, the economic and political aftershocks will be felt for years. Countries with high debts or that depend on oil exports, tourism, or remittances face particularly challenging recoveries, while others will turn inward or be distracted by other challenges.” Although China and Russia were taking advantage of the global vulnerabilities, the report concerned itself with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on governments and societies. The continuous strain and stresses in society will deepen and distract low-to-middle income countries (LMIC’s), while China and Russia will take advantage, as in their already existing “vaccine diplomacy’ tactic.

Citing data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that noted 6% (2012) and 4.4% (2022) growth in the global economy, the report highlights how KPI’s were revised up 0.5 percentage points relative to the previous forecast. Additional policy support in a few large economies can be expected, as the global growth contraction for 2020 is estimated at 3.3%.

Other concerns were for Ecological degradation and a changing climate that will “continue to fuel disease outbreaks, threaten food and water security, and exacerbate political instability and humanitarian crises.” In addition to these concerns, narcotics trafficking has also increased, resulting in the scourge of illicit drugs and organized crime on US soil.

Global Terrorism, Conflicts and Instability

Outside the US, cyber capabilities are being ramped up against evolving technological factors. The US efforts to eliminate militant leadership has not swayed ISIS, al-Qa’ida, Iran and their militant allies who are seen to recoup for fresh plots.

Regional conflicts will also concern the US in the coming year, as they potentially serve as threats to US interests if escalated. “For example, the fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has direct bearing on US forces, while tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan remain a concern for the world.”

Global migration and displacement will also force refugee flows to increase significantly. The US plans to maintain checks on cross-border movements, as there is heightened risk of recruitment and radicalization by militant groups under the strain of the US economy that impacts its humanitarian efforts globally.

While the report does not indicate the relative importance or the magnitude of above threats, National Intelligence Officers will continue to work closely with analysts from across the IC in examining the of the diverse array of threats and highlight the “most likely and/or impactful near-term risks in the context of the longer-term, overarching threat environment,” it concluded.

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