Nigeria could be heading for an absolutely horrific July, marked by mass deaths from the gory COVID-19. The figures from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) spells doom for the West African nation.
According to the health agency, from just a little over 25,000 tests conducted, 4,151 returned positive. With an infection rate of 19 per cent, the nation is averaging a frightening positive case in every six persons examined.
With over 200 million persons, Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and seventh in the world, trailing only China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan and Brazil. However, the country’s testing capacity doesn’t measure up with its population; miles away from its contemporaries.
Epicentre, US has sampled nearly nine million. While India racked up 1.6 million, Brazil managed in excess of 300,000 with Indonesia and Pakistan scooping 153,000 and 280,000 respectively. Nigeria struggles with a pitiful daily test of around 2,000.
The World Health Organization (WHO) severely alarmed that the only way to curb the contagion is by testing. “You cannot fight a fire blindfolded,” Director-General Tedros Adhanom, said in March. “And we cannot stop this pandemic if we don’t know who is infected. We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test.”
Perhaps out of desperation to catch up with the rest of the world, the NCDC promised to test two million Nigerians in three months at 50,000 per state. “We are lagging behind, but now we have to catch up, ” DG Chikwe Ihekweazu said in April.
“In order to test two million people in three months across the country, we need to test about 50,000 per state plus-minus, depending on your population size.” If Ihekweazu’s pledge is anything to go by, then the nation should be prepared for the worst.
Nigeria has recorded 128 deaths. With a current fatality rate of 3 per cent, one in every 32 persons infected by the disease eventually dies. With more tests, the country would be in the same bracket as some of the worst-hit nations in the world.
At over 80,000 casualties, the US’ ratio is currently at 5 per cent. Spain (10), Italy (13), The United Kingdom and France (14), Brazil (7) and China (4) for deaths recorded.
By the end of July, Nigeria would almost certainly have reached 100,000 tests. At this present rate, the nation’s casualties could reach a thousand. If not more.
There are currently 3, 278 active cases as only 745 persons have recovered. To put in proper context, Nigeria’s recovery rate is at 17 per cent, meaning just one in every five positive cases are discharged. This further points towards a dreadful next couple of months.
Coping with the coronavirus in a country of over 200 million people with a healthcare system that is overstuffed and lacks almost everything – from staff to equipment – poses a particular challenge. Healthcare workers are having a nightmare, ill-equipped and utterly exposed to the virus. They already appear overwhelmed.
On top of that, though, the health facilities are overstretched, an insight of what to expect in the month of July. Ihekweazu revealed on Friday that the country is running out of bed spaces.
His words: “We have a big challenge on our hands in the country right now, especially in Lagos, Kano and Zamfara and in a few other states where the number of cases currently outweighs the capacity to continue implementing our policy of institutional isolation of all the patients, whether they are asymptotic, mildly symptomatic or severe. Right now, the reality that we are facing is that the implementation of that policy is very difficult.”
It is still early days in Nigeria though but the signs of the future aren’t great.
