COVID-19: Counting the losses on African aviation

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By Francis Ogwo

The coronavirus pandemic has dealt a great blow on the fortunes of the global aviation industry. This is due to the large market in China and Europe of which African airlines are major players for both trade and Tourism.So many Airlines are crippled and gasping for breath.

According to a New York Times report,there was a prediction that a whopping $40m revenue could be lost to the raging pandemic but a report from International Air Transport Association (IATA)had an estimated regional losses to about $29bn globally.

The sporadic invasion of the virus into the sector however led to a revisiting of the estimation which had shot to $113bn globally.

The Vice President of IATA, Raphael Kuuchi had in a recent statement said about 400 million dollars may be lost due to flight cancellation and suspension of flights to and from China alone.

“The preliminary estimates that IATA came up with indicates that African airlines risk losing about $400m on conservative estimates. This is just based on the impact of China,” Kuuchi told BBC Africa.

There was a massive cancellation of flights by airlines from the China route except Ethiopian Airlines.

The global pandemic had swept across the world and raised concerns from the World Health Organization (WHO) which in a bid to ensure safety of lives while managing the spread of the virus .The IATA official was of the view that the association operated based on the concerns by WHO.

“The airline industry takes it guidelines from the World Health Organization, WHO, and WHO has advised against canceling or suspending flights (and) this is based on previous experience of similar viruses.

“Whenever we have epidemics of this nature and you suspend flights, you actually curtail the efforts to fight the pandemic. So currently, WHO is encouraging airlines to continue to operate but taking into consideration measures that it has outlined for airlines and passengers to adhere to,” he added.

Several African countries had in a swift response ordered suspension of flights in and out of their countries.For example Nigeria suspended railways services and shut down all airports to International flights.IATA had predicted about 853,000 loss in passenger volumes due to the flight suspension.

A tweet by the Personal Assistant to President Muhammadu Buhari on New Media, Bashir Ahmad, on his twitter handle, said the suspension was to contain the spread of the virus .

The Nigerian government also issued an Official NOTAM to Airlines informing them that only two Airports will receive all international flights to the country.

This had dealt a great blow to the teeming crowd of travellers who had to reschedule flights due to the huge rush.

According to a statement signed by the Director General, Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority, Capt. Nuhu Musa, Malam Aminu Kano International Airport ,Akanu Ibiam International Airport, Enugu International Airport and Port Harcourt International Airport will be closed to International flights.

The government subsequently shut down the two remaining international airports, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport Abuja and Murtala Muhammed International Airport, Lagos to international operations.

The Federal Government Tuesday banned all travels outside the country by Ministries, Departments and Agencies till further notice.

The huge market for Tourism in Africa gradually came to an abrupt halt as tour packages were cancelled with the tour Operators counting their losses.

Stephanie Ayoola is a Travel Advisor and Tour Operator based in Dubai.She lamented the impact on her business.

” I had a tour package to Malaysia and Dubai which had been tidied up and sealed.We woke up to hear the news of cancellations of flights around Africa.This had a huge effect on our logistics and planning.We suffered huge financial losses which I may not be able to mention.But I pray this ends soon.”she added.

In the same vein,RwandAir and Air Mauritius suspended flights to China. Morocco also cancelled all International flights to and from its territory “until further notice” and Kenya Airways also suspended flights to countries affected by the virus.

Adefunke Adeyemi is IATA’s Regional Director for Advocacy and Strategic relations in Africa.She disclosed to CNN that there is a significant reduction in passenger demand for Africa .

According it her, international bookings in Africa reduced by 20% in March and April, domestic bookings dropped by about 15% in March and 25% in April, according to data from IATA.

“Not as many passengers are traveling to, from and within Africa because of the outbreak. In terms of the impact on the aviation industry, the numbers we released show Africa taking a hit in terms of revenue,” Adeyemi added

South Africa also had her fair share of the loss with recent information from IATA which said there could be about 6 million passenger loss for airlines flying out of the country

South Africa Airways,the nation’s carrier which is reported to be broke at the moment,announced that it had already canceled up to 162 international and regional flights until the end of March as a result of restriction on the Corona virus pandemic.

The story is not different in Kenya as IATA has predicted about 622,000 loss in passenger volumes with the current speed of the virus spread. The East African country which has a year round influx of tourists has placed travel bans to fight the spread of the virus.

With the dwindling fortunes of the nation’s aviation sector since the outbreak of the virus, many are uncertain on how long this will last.

Adeyemi expressed uncertainty on the length of time this will last
“It is difficult to predict how long it will take to fully reduce the extent of the spread coronavirus.

“We don’t know how long it will take to curtail the spread of coronavirus. Previous crisis of similar nature in the past like Sars had a horizon of about 6 months but covid is unprecedented and it is impossible to say how long it will last,” she said.

She added that the impact of the virus can only be cushioned if governments of affected countries support airlines in form of loans and tax relief packages.

Alexandre de Juniac is the Director General of IATA and also added voice to the situation that has hit the aviation sector below the belt.

“Stopping the spread of COVID-19 is the top priority of governments. But they must be aware that the public health emergency has now become a catastrophe for economies and for aviation. The scale of the current industry crisis is much worse and far more widespread than 9.11, SARS or the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Airlines are fighting for survival.

Many routes have been suspended in Africa and Middle East and airlines have seen demand fall by as much as 60% on remaining ones. Millions of jobs are at stake. Airlines need urgent government action if they are to emerge from this in a fit state to help the world recover, once COVID-19 is beaten,”

“From the government, our call to action is for the government to provide relief either through stimulus packages or through suspension of aeronautical charges, alleviation or reduction of some taxes. It is really important now because we can see the importance of connectivity,” Adeyemi added.

While the affected countries in Africa including Nigeria stay away from airports as the virus lasts ,many are of the view that the future of surviving Airlines would largely depend on the support they get as a huge number may fall into liquidation of measures are not put in place and on time too.

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